So the long march towards an In/Out EU referendum is almost over. Negotiations are not yet complete and no date has been announced but already the Leave or Stay debate is beginning to dominate the political scene.
Referendums are democracy in its purest form; it’s a simple question – stay or leave – and every voter has one vote be he David Cameron, Martin Vickers or Joe Public.
We should have had a series of referendums over the years as the Union moved from the Common Market (supposedly a trading arrangement) through its various manifestations towards the European Union as we know it today. It may well be that we would still be members of this expensive club but it would have been with the consent of the electorate rather than the political elites.
The EU is quite simply not what Harold Wilson, Ted Heath, Roy Jenkins, Tony Crosland and other leading politicians of the time encouraged us to join in the last vote which took place on the 5th June 1975. I wasn’t convinced and voted to leave. Sadly I was on the losing side by about two to one. I suspect this time round will be much closer. Government is very difficult at the best of times and there is no magic bullet; leaving the EU won’t suddenly change the things that annoy us but at least it will be our government that decides things. Of course we will still be influenced by outside factors, we can’t insulate ourselves from the rest of the world but at least the decisions will be ours.
The assumption is that the new terms will be settled at this month’s summit meeting, then the date will be set – everyone’s assuming it will be 23rd June which does seem likely. This week Irish MPs, supported by the SNP even initiated a debate about the date arguing that, in Scotland and elsewhere were there are elections to their national assemblies, voters would be confused. The argument was completely lost on me; to suggest that having got the national and local elections out of the way on the 5th of May people couldn’t, over a period of six weeks, turn their attention to the pros and cons of the European debate is nonsense.
Because the political parties are split on this issue there will be an official ‘Stay’ campaign group and an official ‘Leave’ group. At the moment we have the ludicrous spectacle of the different organisations vying for the official designation by the Electoral Commission as to who gains that designation and the money that goes with it; money that will be used for producing leaflets, TV broadcasts and so on.
I have argued consistently, that there should be an in/out vote as the only way to settle the issue for the next generation – we can’t go on arguing about this issue endlessly; whichever side you are on; whatever the outcome it must be accepted by all.
I shall be voting to leave, something I’ve made clear all along and in particular at the last two General Elections. I think we’ve given the Prime Minister an impossible task since the only way many Eurosceptics would be satisfied is to sweep away the basic building blocks of the Union and that’s not going to happen; so he’s got a deal that does improve our relationship – but no be much
When Mr Cameron reported back to the House of Commons after the last instalment of negotiations I expressed the view that the standing of our democratic institutions was diminished when we have to go cap-in-hand to Brussels for permission to determine who we can pay benefits to and who we can let into our country. The Prime Minister replied, quite reasonably, that our sovereignty is pooled. In some instances that is to our benefit but, I would argue, not in the case of the EU.
When you look back seventeen months and consider what a big event the Scottish referendum was and consider that this will dwarf that in its impact; the outcome will set the course of the nation for the foreseeable future.
I doubt the turnout will be in the 80 and 90 per cent region as it was north of the border but it will be decisive and settle the matter for a generation. If we vote to leave the political scene could change dramatically though the last thing we need if we were to vote Leave is political upheaval. The Prime Minister will need all of his determination and experience to guide the country through what will be a fairly long period of transition.
An exciting few months lie ahead.